How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Russia, at 49.2%. The other outcomes represent 50.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.2% · Draw: 25.1% · Away win: 25.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Russia 1741; Iran 1836. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 16:00
Russia
Elo 1741
2
-
0
Iran
Elo 1836
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-95
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Russia1741
Iran1836
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Russia
0Draws
0Iran
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
Draw
25%
Away
26%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
40%
Draw
45%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.