How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Algeria, at 37.4%. The other outcomes represent 62.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.7% · Draw: 25.9% · Away win: 37.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Burundi 1412; Algeria 1801. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 13:00
Burundi
Elo 1412
2
-
2
Algeria
Elo 1801
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-389
Elo rating comparison
Burundi1412
Algeria1801
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Burundi
—Draws
—Algeria
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
26%
Away
37%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
46%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.