How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Senegal, at 74.5%. The other outcomes represent 25.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 13.6% · Draw: 11.9% · Away win: 74.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Ethiopia 1390; Senegal 1799. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 13:00
Ethiopia
Elo 1390
0
-
1
Senegal
Elo 1799
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-409
Elo rating comparison
Ethiopia1390
Senegal1799
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Ethiopia
—Draws
—Senegal
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
74% conf.
CORRECT
Home
14%
Draw
12%
Away
74%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Home Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Double Chance 1X
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance X2
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Half-Time Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
17%
Draw
27%
Away
56%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.