How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Morocco, at 69.2%. The other outcomes represent 30.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 13.3% · Draw: 17.5% · Away win: 69.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lesotho 1349; Morocco 1910. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 13:00
Lesotho
Elo 1349
0
-
2
Morocco
Elo 1910
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-561
Elo rating comparison
Lesotho1349
Morocco1910
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Lesotho
—Draws
—Morocco
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
69% conf.
CORRECT
Home
13%
Draw
18%
Away
69%
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Double Chance 1X
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance X2
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Half-Time Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
14%
Draw
27%
Away
59%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
100% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
0%
No
100%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.