How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Madagascar, at 54.2%. The other outcomes represent 45.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 54.2% · Draw: 25.7% · Away win: 20.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Madagascar 1518; Tanzania 1452. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 14:00
Madagascar
Elo 1518
1
-
1
Tanzania
Elo 1452
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+66
Elo rating comparison
Madagascar1518
Tanzania1452
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Madagascar
—Draws
—Tanzania
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
WRONG
Home
54%
Draw
26%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
Draw
40%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.