How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Mozambique, at 54.8%. The other outcomes represent 45.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 54.8% · Draw: 25% · Away win: 20.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Mozambique 1466; Sudan 1488. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 13:00
Mozambique
Elo 1466
4
-
1
Sudan
Elo 1488
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-22
Elo rating comparison
Mozambique1466
Sudan1488
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Mozambique
—Draws
—Sudan
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
CORRECT
Home
55%
Draw
25%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
45%
Away
18%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.