How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Gambia, at 39.6%. The other outcomes represent 60.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.4% · Draw: 23.9% · Away win: 39.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Ghana 1589; Gambia 1542. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–4. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 16:00
Ghana
Elo 1589
2
-
4
Gambia
Elo 1542
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+47
Elo rating comparison
Ghana1589
Gambia1542
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Ghana
—Draws
—Gambia
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
Draw
24%
Away
40%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
Draw
39%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.