How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Guinea-Bissau, at 41.3%. The other outcomes represent 58.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.3% · Draw: 26.1% · Away win: 32.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Guinea-Bissau 1420; Nigeria 1725. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 16:00
Guinea-Bissau
Elo 1420
3
-
0
Nigeria
Elo 1725
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-305
Elo rating comparison
Guinea-Bissau1420
Nigeria1725
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Guinea-Bissau
—Draws
—Nigeria
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
41%
Draw
26%
Away
33%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Clean Sheet
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
Draw
47%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.