How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Zambia, at 44.1%. The other outcomes represent 55.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.1% · Draw: 24.2% · Away win: 31.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Zambia 1475; Togo 1536. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 16:00
Zambia
Elo 1475
2
-
0
Togo
Elo 1536
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-61
Elo rating comparison
Zambia1475
Togo1536
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Zambia
—Draws
—Togo
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
Draw
24%
Away
32%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
43%
Away
24%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.