How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Spain, at 62.0%. The other outcomes represent 38.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 62% · Draw: 23.5% · Away win: 14.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Spain 1997; Croatia 1775. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 18:45
Spain
Elo 1997
vs
Croatia
Elo 1775
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+222
Elo rating comparison
Spain1997
Croatia1775
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Spain
—Draws
—Croatia
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
Home
62%
@ 1.35
Draw
24%
@ 4.52
Away
14%
@ 8.33
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
Yes
93%
@ 1.07
No
7%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Half-Time Result
52% conf.
Home
52%
@ 1.81
Draw
36%
@ 2.50
Away
12%
@ 6.57
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
Yes
78%
@ 1.29
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
Yes
79%
@ 1.20
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
Yes
60%
@ 1.67
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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