How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Moldova, at 41.7%. The other outcomes represent 58.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.7% · Draw: 26.9% · Away win: 31.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Moldova 1260; Faroe Islands 1344. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 16:00
Moldova
Elo 1260
1
-
1
Faroe Islands
Elo 1344
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-84
Elo rating comparison
Moldova1260
Faroe Islands1344
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Moldova
—Draws
—Faroe Islands
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
42%
@ 2.30
Draw
27%
@ 3.10
Away
31%
@ 3.10
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.33
No
30%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.57
No
41%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
@ 3.00
Draw
44%
@ 1.91
Away
22%
@ 3.75
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.45
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 2.40
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.