How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bulgaria, at 53.8%. The other outcomes represent 46.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 53.8% · Draw: 25.3% · Away win: 20.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bulgaria 1418; Estonia 1361. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 18:45
Bulgaria
Elo 1418
vs
Estonia
Elo 1361
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+56
Elo rating comparison
Bulgaria1418
Estonia1361
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Bulgaria
—Draws
—Estonia
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
Home
54%
@ 1.50
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Away
21%
@ 6.50
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
@ 1.10
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
45%
@ 2.10
Draw
37%
@ 2.10
Away
19%
@ 6.50
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
Yes
74%
@ 1.44
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
56%
@ 2.25
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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