How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Luxembourg, at 42.5%. The other outcomes represent 57.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.5% · Draw: 26.3% · Away win: 31.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Luxembourg 1418; Iceland 1499. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 18:45
Luxembourg
Elo 1418
vs
Iceland
Elo 1499
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
-81
Elo rating comparison
Luxembourg1418
Iceland1499
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Luxembourg
—Draws
—Iceland
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
Home
42%
Draw
26%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
39%
Draw
40%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.