How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Slovenia, at 50.1%. The other outcomes represent 49.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 50.1% · Draw: 30.4% · Away win: 19.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Slovenia 1577; FYR Macedonia 1494. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 18:45
Slovenia
Elo 1577
vs
FYR Macedonia
Elo 1494
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+83
Elo rating comparison
Slovenia1577
FYR Macedonia1494
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Slovenia
—Draws
—FYR Macedonia
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
Home
50%
@ 1.72
Draw
30%
@ 3.33
Away
19%
@ 4.91
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
Yes
89%
@ 1.16
No
11%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
Home
43%
@ 2.29
Draw
44%
@ 2.13
Away
13%
@ 5.04
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
Yes
68%
@ 1.40
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
Yes
76%
@ 1.35
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.