How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is USA, at 45.5%. The other outcomes represent 54.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.5% · Draw: 24.2% · Away win: 30.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: USA 1722; Chile 1642. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 00:00
USA
Elo 1722
vs
Chile
Elo 1642
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+80
Elo rating comparison
USA1722
Chile1642
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—USA
—Draws
—Chile
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
Home
45%
Draw
24%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
Home
33%
Draw
39%
Away
28%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
71% conf.
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
Yes
49%
No
51%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.