How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Instituto Res., at 37.9%. The other outcomes represent 62.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 37.9% · Draw: 28.4% · Away win: 33.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Instituto Res. 1501; Racing Club Res. 1534. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Reserve League · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 18:00
Instituto Res.
Elo 1501
vs
Racing Club Res.
Elo 1534
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-33
H2H (1)
0H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Instituto Res.1501
Racing Club Res.1534
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Instituto Res.
1Draws
0Racing Club Res.
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
Home
38%
Draw
28%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
30%
Draw
45%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.