How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Atletico Nacional, at 55.8%. The other outcomes represent 44.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 55.8% · Draw: 24.2% · Away win: 20%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atletico Nacional 1809; Junior 1706. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 01:00
Atletico Nacional
Elo 1809
vs
Junior
Elo 1706
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+102
H2H (6)
4H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Atletico Nacional1809
Junior1706
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Atletico Nacional
0Draws
2Junior
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
Home
56%
Draw
24%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
Home
41%
Draw
42%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.