How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sacramento Republic, at 52.5%. The other outcomes represent 47.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 52.5% · Draw: 24.2% · Away win: 23.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sacramento Republic 1664; Las Vegas Lights 1514. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
USL Championship · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 02:00
Sacramento Republic
Elo 1664
vs
Las Vegas Lights
Elo 1514
Home Form (5)
0W
5D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+149
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Sacramento Republic1664
Las Vegas Lights1514
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sacramento Republic
2Draws
0Las Vegas Lights
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
Home
53%
Draw
24%
Away
23%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
Home
43%
Draw
40%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.