How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Guinea, at 58.6%. The other outcomes represent 41.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58.6% · Draw: 24% · Away win: 17.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Guinea 1545; Kenya 1533. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 16:00
Guinea
Elo 1545
vs
Kenya
Elo 1533
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
+12
Elo rating comparison
Guinea1545
Kenya1533
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Guinea
—Draws
—Kenya
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
Home
59%
Draw
24%
Away
17%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
Home
38%
Draw
44%
Away
18%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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