How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Podlasie Biała Podlaska, at 48.2%. The other outcomes represent 51.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48.2% · Draw: 24% · Away win: 27.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1574; Star Starachowice 1537. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
III Liga - Group 4 · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 16:00
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Elo 1574
vs
Star Starachowice
Elo 1537
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+37
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Podlasie Biała Podlaska1574
Star Starachowice1537
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Podlasie Biała Podlaska
2Draws
0Star Starachowice
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
Home
48%
Draw
24%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Half-Time Result
37% conf.
Home
36%
Draw
37%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.