How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is SE Belford Roxo, at 36.4%. The other outcomes represent 63.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.4% · Draw: 28.8% · Away win: 34.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: SE Belford Roxo 1486; Santa Cruz RJ 1563. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca B2 · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 18:00
SE Belford Roxo
Elo 1486
vs
Santa Cruz RJ
Elo 1563
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-78
Elo rating comparison
SE Belford Roxo1486
Santa Cruz RJ1563
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—SE Belford Roxo
—Draws
—Santa Cruz RJ
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
Home
36%
Draw
29%
Away
35%
Both Teams to Score
68% conf.
Yes
68%
No
32%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
29%
Draw
40%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.