How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cardoso Moreira, at 58.2%. The other outcomes represent 41.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58.2% · Draw: 23.6% · Away win: 18.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cardoso Moreira 1567; Serra Macaense 1457. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca B2 · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 18:00
Cardoso Moreira
Elo 1567
vs
Serra Macaense
Elo 1457
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+111
Elo rating comparison
Cardoso Moreira1567
Serra Macaense1457
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Cardoso Moreira
—Draws
—Serra Macaense
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
Home
58%
Draw
24%
Away
18%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
37%
Draw
40%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.