How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Barra Mansa, at 51.0%. The other outcomes represent 49.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 26.8% · Draw: 22.2% · Away win: 51%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rio de Janeiro 1276; Barra Mansa 1387. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca B2 · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 18:00
Rio de Janeiro
Elo 1276
vs
Barra Mansa
Elo 1387
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-110
Elo rating comparison
Rio de Janeiro1276
Barra Mansa1387
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Rio de Janeiro
—Draws
—Barra Mansa
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
Home
27%
Draw
22%
Away
51%
Both Teams to Score
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
88% conf.
Yes
12%
No
88%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
Home
24%
Draw
39%
Away
37%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.