How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Boca Juniors Res., at 37.6%. The other outcomes represent 62.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.8% · Draw: 30.6% · Away win: 37.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Independiente Res. 1635; Boca Juniors Res. 1692. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Reserve League · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 18:00
Independiente Res.
Elo 1635
vs
Boca Juniors Res.
Elo 1692
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-57
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Independiente Res.1635
Boca Juniors Res.1692
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Independiente Res.
0Draws
0Boca Juniors Res.
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
31%
Away
38%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
Yes
66%
No
34%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
25%
Draw
48%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.