How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Denmark, at 40.3%. The other outcomes represent 59.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.3% · Draw: 26.5% · Away win: 33.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Denmark 1766; Portugal 1866. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 18:45
Denmark
Elo 1766
vs
Portugal
Elo 1866
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-100
Elo rating comparison
Denmark1766
Portugal1866
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Denmark
—Draws
—Portugal
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
Home
40%
Draw
27%
Away
33%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
Yes
62%
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
Home
35%
Draw
44%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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