How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Norway, at 43.1%. The other outcomes represent 56.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 32.3% · Draw: 24.6% · Away win: 43.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Wales 1563; Norway 1795. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 18:45
Wales
Elo 1563
vs
Norway
Elo 1795
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-232
Elo rating comparison
Wales1563
Norway1795
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Wales
—Draws
—Norway
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
25%
Away
43%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
26%
Draw
45%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.