How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Orleans, at 40.2%. The other outcomes represent 59.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39% · Draw: 20.8% · Away win: 40.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bastia 1691; Orleans 1743. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 3 · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 18:45
Bastia
Elo 1691
vs
Orleans
Elo 1743
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-52
Elo rating comparison
Bastia1691
Orleans1743
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Bastia
—Draws
—Orleans
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
Home
39%
Draw
21%
Away
40%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
Home
29%
Draw
41%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.