How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Manchester City W, at 46.0%. The other outcomes represent 54.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 46% · Draw: 25.9% · Away win: 28%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Manchester City W 2164; Real Madrid W 2069. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Champions League Women · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 19:00
Manchester City W
Elo 2164
vs
Real Madrid W
Elo 2069
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
+95
Elo rating comparison
Manchester City W2164
Real Madrid W2069
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Manchester City W
—Draws
—Real Madrid W
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
Home
46%
Draw
26%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
Home
40%
Draw
38%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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