How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Montserrat, at 62.4%. The other outcomes represent 37.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 19.7% · Draw: 17.9% · Away win: 62.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: British Virgin Islands 1213; Montserrat 1377. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
CONCACAF Nations League · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 19:00
British Virgin Islands
Elo 1213
vs
Montserrat
Elo 1377
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-163
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
British Virgin Islands1213
Montserrat1377
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0British Virgin Islands
0Draws
4Montserrat
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
Home
20%
Draw
18%
Away
62%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Clean Sheet
88% conf.
Yes
12%
No
88%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
Yes
78%
No
22%
Half-Time Result
53% conf.
Home
18%
Draw
29%
Away
53%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.