How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Saint Martin, at 62.1%. The other outcomes represent 37.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 20.3% · Draw: 17.6% · Away win: 62.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: US Virgin Islands 1194; Saint Martin 1392. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
CONCACAF Nations League · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 20:00
US Virgin Islands
Elo 1194
vs
Saint Martin
Elo 1392
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-199
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
US Virgin Islands1194
Saint Martin1392
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4US Virgin Islands
0Draws
0Saint Martin
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
Home
20%
Draw
18%
Away
62%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Clean Sheet
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
Home
22%
Draw
36%
Away
42%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.