How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Firpo, at 65.8%. The other outcomes represent 34.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 17.5% · Draw: 16.7% · Away win: 65.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fuerte San Francisco 1422; Firpo 1745. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Division · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 21:30
Fuerte San Francisco
Elo 1422
vs
Firpo
Elo 1745
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-323
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Fuerte San Francisco1422
Firpo1745
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Fuerte San Francisco
0Draws
2Firpo
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
66% conf.
Home
17%
Draw
17%
Away
66%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Home Clean Sheet
89% conf.
Yes
11%
No
89%
Double Chance 1X
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance X2
81% conf.
Yes
81%
No
19%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
18%
Draw
38%
Away
45%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.