How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Guarabira, at 49.1%. The other outcomes represent 50.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 25.6% · Draw: 25.3% · Away win: 49.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Serrano PB 1384; Guarabira 1546. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Paraibano 2 · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 22:30
Serrano PB
Elo 1384
vs
Guarabira
Elo 1546
Home Form (5)
0W
4D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-162
Elo rating comparison
Serrano PB1384
Guarabira1546
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Serrano PB
—Draws
—Guarabira
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
Home
26%
Draw
25%
Away
49%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
Home
21%
Draw
38%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.