How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Deren, at 60.6%. The other outcomes represent 39.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 21.1% · Draw: 18.3% · Away win: 60.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Khovd Western 1474; Deren 1807. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 05:00
Khovd Western
Elo 1474
vs
Deren
Elo 1807
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-333
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Khovd Western1474
Deren1807
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Khovd Western
0Draws
2Deren
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
Home
21%
Draw
18%
Away
61%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Clean Sheet
90% conf.
Yes
10%
No
90%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
79% conf.
Yes
79%
No
21%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
Home
20%
Draw
30%
Away
51%
HT Both Teams Score
70% conf.
Yes
30%
No
70%
HT Over 0.5
82% conf.
Yes
82%
No
18%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
Yes
51%
No
49%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.