How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Municipal Limeño, at 51.6%. The other outcomes represent 48.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 26% · Draw: 22.4% · Away win: 51.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Inca Aruba 1465; Municipal Limeño 1616. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Division · Friday, Oct 2 2026
· 00:00
Inca Aruba
Elo 1465
vs
Municipal Limeño
Elo 1616
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-152
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Inca Aruba1465
Municipal Limeño1616
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Inca Aruba
0Draws
2Municipal Limeño
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
52% conf.
Home
26%
Draw
22%
Away
52%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
Home
21%
Draw
36%
Away
43%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.