How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Tusker, at 41.5%. The other outcomes represent 58.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.5% · Draw: 28.6% · Away win: 29.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Tusker 1644; Mara Sugar 1631. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FKF Premier League · Friday, Oct 2 2026
· 12:00
Tusker
Elo 1644
vs
Mara Sugar
Elo 1631
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+13
H2H (3)
0H
0D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Tusker1644
Mara Sugar1631
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Tusker
0Draws
3Mara Sugar
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
Home
42%
Draw
29%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
29%
Draw
48%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Over 1.5 Goals
62% conf.
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.