How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Kazakhstan, at 56.5%. The other outcomes represent 43.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 56.5% · Draw: 25.2% · Away win: 18.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Kazakhstan 1372; Moldova 1260. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Nations League · Friday, Oct 2 2026
· 14:00
Kazakhstan
Elo 1372
vs
Moldova
Elo 1260
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
+112
Elo rating comparison
Kazakhstan1372
Moldova1260
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Kazakhstan
—Draws
—Moldova
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
57% conf.
Home
57%
@ 1.68
Draw
25%
@ 3.65
Away
18%
@ 5.23
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
Yes
84%
@ 1.16
No
16%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
Home
46%
@ 2.26
Draw
37%
@ 2.11
Away
17%
@ 5.50
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
Yes
71%
@ 1.43
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
Yes
75%
@ 1.34
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
Yes
53%
@ 2.10
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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