How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Colombia, at 56.1%. The other outcomes represent 43.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 56.1% · Draw: 25.1% · Away win: 18.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Colombia 1887; Paraguay 1686. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Friendlies · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 00:00
Colombia
Elo 1887
vs
Paraguay
Elo 1686
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+201
Elo rating comparison
Colombia1887
Paraguay1686
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Colombia
—Draws
—Paraguay
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
Home
56%
Draw
25%
Away
19%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
Home
49%
Draw
38%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.