How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is CDS Tampico Madero, at 50.3%. The other outcomes represent 49.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 25.3% · Draw: 24.3% · Away win: 50.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Tepatitlán 1496; CDS Tampico Madero 1580. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Expansión MX · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 01:00
Tepatitlán
Elo 1496
vs
CDS Tampico Madero
Elo 1580
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-84
H2H (9)
4H
2D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Tepatitlán1496
CDS Tampico Madero1580
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Tepatitlán
2Draws
3CDS Tampico Madero
9 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
Home
25%
@ 3.47
Draw
24%
@ 3.40
Away
50%
@ 1.93
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
Yes
55%
@ 1.69
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
Yes
50%
@ 1.76
No
50%
Double Chance X2
75% conf.
Yes
75%
@ 1.25
No
25%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
Home
23%
@ 4.08
Draw
43%
@ 2.18
Away
35%
@ 2.50
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
@ 1.34
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
69%
@ 1.24
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
52%
@ 1.81
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.