How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Antigua GFC, at 38.7%. The other outcomes represent 61.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.1% · Draw: 23.2% · Away win: 38.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Marquense 1627; Antigua GFC 1702. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Nacional · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 02:00
Marquense
Elo 1627
vs
Antigua GFC
Elo 1702
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
-74
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Marquense1627
Antigua GFC1702
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Marquense
0Draws
4Antigua GFC
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
Home
38%
Draw
23%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
Home
36%
Draw
41%
Away
24%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.