How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sparta Katowice, at 56.3%. The other outcomes represent 43.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 56.3% · Draw: 21.6% · Away win: 22.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sparta Katowice 1687; Warta Gorzów 1500. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
III Liga - Group 3 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 10:00
Sparta Katowice
Elo 1687
1
-
1
Warta Gorzów
Elo 1500
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+186
Elo rating comparison
Sparta Katowice1687
Warta Gorzów1500
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Sparta Katowice
—Draws
—Warta Gorzów
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
WRONG
Home
56%
Draw
22%
Away
22%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
46%
Draw
34%
Away
20%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.