How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Vard, at 50.4%. The other outcomes represent 49.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.5% · Draw: 18.1% · Away win: 50.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Stord 1427; Vard 1552. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
3. Division - Girone 3 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 11:00
Stord
Elo 1427
1
-
2
Vard
Elo 1552
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-124
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Stord1427
Vard1552
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Stord
0Draws
2Vard
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
Draw
18%
Away
50%
Both Teams to Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
Draw
34%
Away
40%
HT Both Teams Score
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
HT Over 0.5
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 1.5 Goals
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
91%
No
9%
Over 2.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.