How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chesterfield, at 62.4%. The other outcomes represent 37.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 62.4% · Draw: 20.9% · Away win: 16.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Chesterfield 1696; Tranmere 1547. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
League Two · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 11:30
Chesterfield
Elo 1696
4
-
2
Tranmere
Elo 1547
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+149
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Chesterfield1696
Tranmere1547
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Chesterfield
2Draws
0Tranmere
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
CORRECT
Home
62%
@ 1.66
Draw
21%
@ 3.87
Away
17%
@ 4.42
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.66
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.17
No
15%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
51%
@ 2.19
Draw
31%
@ 2.34
Away
18%
@ 4.58
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.30
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
90%
@ 1.20
No
10%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.67
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.