How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Drøbak / Frogn, at 52.3%. The other outcomes represent 47.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 52.3% · Draw: 20.6% · Away win: 27.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Drøbak / Frogn 1522; Sarpsborg 08 II 1442. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
3. Division - Girone 6 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:00
Drøbak / Frogn
Elo 1522
4
-
1
Sarpsborg 08 II
Elo 1442
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+80
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Drøbak / Frogn1522
Sarpsborg 08 II1442
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Drøbak / Frogn
0Draws
2Sarpsborg 08 II
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
52% conf.
CORRECT
Home
52%
Draw
21%
Away
27%
Both Teams to Score
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
Draw
37%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
HT Over 0.5
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 1.5 Goals
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
91%
No
9%
Over 2.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 3.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.