How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Stargard Szczeciński, at 48.4%. The other outcomes represent 51.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48.4% · Draw: 24.8% · Away win: 26.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Stargard Szczeciński 1577; Kalisz 1517. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
III Liga - Group 2 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:00
Stargard Szczeciński
Elo 1577
5
-
0
Kalisz
Elo 1517
FT
HT 4-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+60
Elo rating comparison
Stargard Szczeciński1577
Kalisz1517
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Stargard Szczeciński
—Draws
—Kalisz
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
25%
Away
27%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
Draw
33%
Away
29%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.