How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Næsby, at 60.6%. The other outcomes represent 39.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60.6% · Draw: 18% · Away win: 21.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Næsby 1762; Holstebro 1630. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
3. Division · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:00
Næsby
Elo 1762
4
-
0
Holstebro
Elo 1630
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+132
Elo rating comparison
Næsby1762
Holstebro1630
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Næsby
—Draws
—Holstebro
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
61%
Draw
18%
Away
21%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
34%
Away
18%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.