How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is CSM Adjud, at 60.8%. The other outcomes represent 39.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60.8% · Draw: 25.9% · Away win: 13.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: CSM Adjud 1511; Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1408. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga III - Serie 1 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:00
CSM Adjud
Elo 1511
1
-
1
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
Elo 1408
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
+103
Elo rating comparison
CSM Adjud1511
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ1408
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—CSM Adjud
—Draws
—Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
WRONG
Home
61%
Draw
26%
Away
13%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
42%
Draw
42%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.