How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Axiopolis, at 48.2%. The other outcomes represent 51.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48.2% · Draw: 21.1% · Away win: 30.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Axiopolis 1483; Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1453. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga III - Serie 4 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:00
Axiopolis
Elo 1483
3
-
1
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Elo 1453
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
+30
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Axiopolis1483
Recolta Gheorghe Doja1453
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Axiopolis
0Draws
0Recolta Gheorghe Doja
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
21%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
40%
Draw
34%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
HT Over 0.5
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 3.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.