How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Progresul Fundulea, at 71.7%. The other outcomes represent 28.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 71.7% · Draw: 17.9% · Away win: 10.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Progresul Fundulea 1549; Gloria Băneasa 1362. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga III - Serie 4 · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:00
Progresul Fundulea
Elo 1549
2
-
1
Gloria Băneasa
Elo 1362
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+187
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Progresul Fundulea1549
Gloria Băneasa1362
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Progresul Fundulea
0Draws
0Gloria Băneasa
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
72% conf.
CORRECT
Home
72%
Draw
18%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Half-Time Result
54% conf.
WRONG
Home
54%
Draw
33%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.