How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is TuS Geretsried, at 39.3%. The other outcomes represent 60.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.3% · Draw: 24.4% · Away win: 36.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: TuS Geretsried 1441; Kirchanschöring 1497. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:30
TuS Geretsried
Elo 1441
1
-
2
Kirchanschöring
Elo 1497
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-56
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
TuS Geretsried1441
Kirchanschöring1497
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0TuS Geretsried
2Draws
0Kirchanschöring
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
Draw
24%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
Draw
38%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.