How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Rijnvogels, at 71.7%. The other outcomes represent 28.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 71.7% · Draw: 15.8% · Away win: 12.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rijnvogels 1611; Groene Ster 1338. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Derde Divisie · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 12:30
Rijnvogels
Elo 1611
5
-
1
Groene Ster
Elo 1338
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+274
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Rijnvogels1611
Groene Ster1338
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Rijnvogels
0Draws
0Groene Ster
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
72% conf.
CORRECT
Home
72%
Draw
16%
Away
12%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Half-Time Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
Draw
36%
Away
11%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.